Playoff Projections: Kyle Larson & Post-Watkins Glen

 

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    Now that the NASCAR Cup Series back on track after the two-week, Olympic break, the race at Watkins Glen has brought the regular-season points lead to a tie. A tie between Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin.

Kyle Larson's win at Watkins Glen finally brought him closer than he has been all season long to Denny Hamlin's points advantage. Before this past weekend's race, Hamlin had led the regular-season points since the Daytona Road Course race back in late February. 

Here is a look back to the Top 16 after New Hampshire:

Liam Marshall-Stark/Stock Car Media

And now for the Top 16 after Watkins Glen:

1. Kyle Larson [No. 5 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 917 Points [5 Wins, 12 Stage Points] (+1)
2. Denny Hamlin [No. 11 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 917 Points [5 Stage Points] (-1)
3. William Byron [No. 24 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 786 Points [1 Win, 3 Stage Points]
4. Kyle Busch [No. 18 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 779 Points [2 Wins, 4 Stage Points]
5. Joey Logano [No. 22 Ford / Team Penske] 760 Points [1 Win, 2 Stage Points] (+1)
6. Chase Elliott [No. 9 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 749 Points [2 Wins, 1 Stage Point] (-1)
7. Martin Truex, Jr. [No. 19 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 740 Points [3 Wins, 5 Stage Points]
8. Ryan Blaney [No. 12 Ford / Team Penske] 712 Points [1 Win, 4 Stage Points]
9. Kevin Harvick [No. 4 Ford / Stewart-Haas Racing] 710 Points (+1)
10. Brad Keselowski [No. 2 Ford / Team Penske] 678 Points [1 Win, 2 Stage Points] (-1)
11. Alex Bowman [No. 48 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 633 Points [3 Wins]
12. Tyler Reddick [No. 8 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 630 Points [1 Stage Point]
13. Austin Dillon [No. 3 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 615 Points 
14. Kurt Busch [No. 1 Chevrolet / Chip Ganassi Racing] 576 Points [1 Win, 3 Stage Points]
15. Christopher Bell [No. 20 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 571 Points [1 Win]
16. Chris Buescher [No. 17 Ford / Roush-Fenway Racing] 495 Points [1 Stage Point]

 - Who has moved around inside the Top 16?

Denny Hamlin now technically 2nd in points, even though he is tied with Kyle Larson. Larson has 5 wins, and Hamlin has none, so that is a big difference.

No one has left, or moved up and into the Top 16, so I'll skip that section this week.

The current Playoff field looks like this:

1. [No. 5] Kyle Larson / 5 Wins / 917
2. [No. 19] Martin Truex, Jr. / 3 Wins / 740
3. [No. 48] Alex Bowman / 3 Wins / 633
4. [No. 18] Kyle Busch / 2 Wins / 779
5. [No. 9] Chase Elliott / 2 Wins / 736
6. [No. 24] William Byron / 1 Win / 749
7. [No. 22] Joey Logano / 1 Win / 760
8. [No. 12] Ryan Blaney / 1 Win / 712
9. [No. 2] Brad Keselowski / 1 Win / 678
10. [No. 1] Kurt Busch / 1 Win / 576
11. [No. 20] Christopher Bell / 1 Win / 571
12. [No. 34] Michael McDowell / 1 Win / 464
13. [No. 10] Aric Almirola / 1 Win / 398
14. [No. 11] Denny Hamlin / 917
15. [No. 4] Kevin Harvick / 710
16. [No. 8] Tyler Reddick / 630
17. [No. 3] Austin Dillon / 615
18. [No. 17] Chris Buescher / 495
19. [No. 21] Matt DiBenedetto / 483
20. [No. 42] Ross Chastain / 482