Playoff Projections: Denny Hamlin & Post-Darlington (Fall 2021)

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     The quest for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship is underway after a thrilling finish at Darlington Raceway on September 5th. On the final lap, Kyle Larson was determined to get around Denny Hamlin, but Hamlin was able to overcome a 30-race losing streak at Darlington, and win his way into the Round of 12. 

Prior to yesterday's race at Darlington, the 16-driver playoff field was set for the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series. Below is where the points of the 16 drivers placed them in order:

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Denny Hamlin was the 7th seed to start the playoffs, but let's take a look and see where he ended up after a successful day at Darlington.

1. Kyle Larson [No. 5 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 2106
2. Denny Hamlin [No. 11 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 2073
3. Martin Truex, Jr. [No. 19 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 2062
4. Kurt Busch [No. 1 Chevrolet / Chip Ganassi Racing] 2052
5. Ryan Blaney [No. 12 Ford / Team Penske] 2048
6. Joey Logano [No. 22 Ford / Team Penske] 2047
7. Kevin Harvick [No. 4 Ford / Stewart-Haas Racing] 2046
8. Brad Keselowski [No. 2 Ford / Team Penske] 2038
9. Christopher Bell [No. 20 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 2031
10. Chase Elliott [No. 9 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 2030
11. Aric Almirola [No. 10 Ford / Stewart-Haas Racing] 2029
12. Tyler Reddick [No. 8 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 2026
    
13. Alex Bowman [No. 48 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 2026
14. Kyle Busch [No. 18 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 2024
15. William Byron [No. 24 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 2017
16. Michael McDowell [No. 34 Ford / Front Row Motorsports] 2006

Denny Hamlin is locked into the Round of 12, so he is safe no matter where he finishes in the next two races.

There were some early troubles for multiple playoff drivers, including Michael McDowell, Alex Bowman, William Byron, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott. Of these drivers, only Bowman finished the race, but Chase Elliott remains above the cutline in 10th. Alex Bowman and Tyler Reddick are tied on the cutline leading into Richmond, where Bowman took his first win of the season earlier this year.

So what will happen is the next two weeks at Richmond & Bristol determine who all moves on to the next playoff round.