Playoff Projections: Kyle Larson & Post-Nashville

 

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    With his dominate win at Nashville, Larson not only took over as the driver with the most wins this season, but he reeled in Denny Hamlin's points lead. And by a lot.

As we are in the "playoffs crunch-time", we will more than a few drivers, try and clinch the playoffs in these last 9 races. There are currently 5 open seats inside the playoff bubble, which means 5 more drivers have the chance to win their way into the playoffs in these last 9 races.

First, let's look at the Top 16 after Sonoma:

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And now for this week's Top 16 after Nashville:

1. Denny Hamlin [No. 11 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 686 Points [5 Stage Points]
2. Kyle Larson [No. 5 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 676 Points [4 Wins, 12 Stage Points]
3. William Byron [No. 24 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 605 Points [1 Win, 1 Stage Point] (+1)
4. Chase Elliott [No. 9 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 592 Points [1 Win, 1 Stage Point] (-1)
5. Joey Logano [No. 22 Ford / Team Penske] 578 Points [1 Win, 3 Stage Points]
6. Kyle Busch [No. 18 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 559 Points [1 Win, 2 Stage Points] (+1)
7. Martin Truex, Jr. [No. 19 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 542 Points [3 Wins, 3 Stage Points] (-1)
8. Kevin Harvick [No. 4 Ford / Stewart-Haas Racing] 517 Points (+1)
9. Ryan Blaney [No. 12 Ford / Team Penske] 510 Points [1 Win, 3 Stage Points] (-1)
10. Brad Keselowski [No. 2 Ford / Team Penske] 491 Points [1 Win, 1 Stage Point]
11. Austin Dillon [No. 3 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 476 Points (+1)
12. Alex Bowman [No. 48 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 470 Points [2 Wins] (-1)
13. Tyler Reddick [No. 8 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 417 Points 
14. Christopher Bell [No. 11 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 392 Points [1 Win] (+1)
15. Chris Buescher [No. 17 Ford / Roush-Fenway Racing] 392 Points [1 Stage Point] (-1)
16. Michael McDowell [No. 34 Ford / Front Row Motorsports] 376 Points [1 Win]

  - Who has moved around inside the Top 16?

Denny Hamlin's point lead is shrinking fast as Kyle Larson chopped 29 points off of Hamlin's lead this week, and now sits 47 point behind the top spot. Hendrick teammates', Elliott and Byron, switched places in the top 5. Kyle Busch passed Ryan Blaney for the 7th spot, and Alex Bowman moved up to take 11th from Austin Dillon.

No one has moved out or into the top 16 this week, so I'll skip that section.

Here is a look at the current playoff field:

1. [No. 5] Kyle Larson / 4 Wins / 675
2. [No. 19] Martin Truex, Jr. / 3 Wins / 541
3. [No. 48] Alex Bowman / 2 Wins / 469
4. [No. 24] William Byron / 1 Win / 605
5. [No. 9]Chase Elliott / 1 Win / 592
6. [No. 22] Joey Logano / 1 Win / 577
7. [No. 18] Kyle Busch / 1 Win / 558
8. [No. 12] Ryan Blaney / 1 Win / 510
9. [No. 2] Brad Keselowski / 1 Win / 489
10. [No. 20] Christopher Bell / 1 Win / 392
11. [No. 34] Michael McDowell / 1 Win / 375
12. [No. 11] Denny Hamlin / 684 [Points Leader]
13. [No. 4] Kevin Harvick / 516
14. [No. 3] Austin Dillon / 475
15. [No. 8] Tyler Reddick / 416
16. [No. 17] Chris Buescher / 392