Playoff Projections: Kyle Larson & Post-Sonoma

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    Is Kyle Larson looking like a championship contender for 2021 or not? If you don't think so, you may be watching the wrong races. 

With his win at Sonoma, Larson became the 2nd NASCAR Cup Series driver to win 3 total races so far in 2021. That other driver, is Martin Truex, Jr.

As there is only 10 races left of the regular 26 race season, there will be multiple currently winless drivers scrambling for a win to lock themselves into the playoffs.  Below is just a few:

• Denny Hamlin
• Kevin Harvick
• Austin Dillon
• Tyler Reddick
• Chris Buescher
• Matt DiBenedetto
• Kurt Busch
• Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
• Ross Chastain

The drivers listed in green, is above the cutoff line, and the drivers listed in red is under. 

Only 5 more drivers need to win in the next 10 races to secure their place into the playoffs, and we will have 16 different winners. Although, if 6 more drivers win, the one driver who has a win, but has the least number of points, will not make it into the playoffs. There is only 5 more, open playoff seats.

Now, let's check out the standings.

The top 16 after last week's race at Charlotte:

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This week's top 16 after Sonoma:

1. Denny Hamlin [No. 11 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 664 Points [5 Stage Points]
2. Kyle Larson [No. 5 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 617 Points [3 Wins, 11 Stage Points]
3. Chase Elliott [No. 9 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 591 Points [1 Win, 1 Stage Point] (+1)
4. William Byron [No. 24 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 564 Points [1 Win, 1 Stage Point] (-1)
5. Joey Logano [No. 22 Ford / Team Penske] 548 Points [1 Win, 3 Stage Points] 
6. Martin Truex, Jr. [No. 19 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 527 Points [3 Wins, 3 Stage Wins]
7. Kyle Busch [No. 18 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 520 Points [1 Win, 2 Stage Points] (+1)
8. Ryan Blaney [No. 12 Ford / Team Penske] 509 Points [1 Win, 3 Stage Points] (-1)
9. Kevin Harvick [No. 4 Ford / Stewart-Haas Racing] 483 Points
10. Brad Keselowski [No. 2 Ford / Team Penske] 473 Points [1 Win, 1 Stage Point]
11. Alex Bowman [No. 48 Chevrolet / Hendrick Motorsports] 447 Points [2 Wins] (+1)
12. Austin Dillon [No. 3 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 436 Points (-1)
13. Tyler Reddick [No. 8 Chevrolet / Richard Childress Racing] 398 Points 
14. Chris Buescher [No. 17 Ford / Roush-Fenway Racing] 391 Points [1 Stage Point]
15. Christopher Bell [No. 20 Toyota / Joe Gibbs Racing] 364 Points [1 Win]
16. Michael McDowell [No. 34 Ford / Front Row Motorsports] 355 Points [1 Win]

 - Who has moved around inside the Top 16?

Denny Hamlin's point lead is shrinking fast as Kyle Larson chopped 29 points off of Hamlin's lead this week, and now sits 47 point behind the top spot. Hendrick teammates', Elliott and Byron, switched places in the top 5. Kyle Busch passed Ryan Blaney for the 7th spot, and Alex Bowman moved up to take 11th from Austin Dillon.

No one has moved out or into the top 16 this week, so I'll skip that section.

The current playoff field looks like this:

1. [No. 5] Kyle Larson / 3 Wins / 617
2. [No. 19] Martin Truex, Jr. / 3 Wins / 527
3. [No. 48] Alex Bowman / 2 Wins / 447
4. [No. 9] Chase Elliott / 1 Win / 591
5. [No. 24] William Byron / 1 Win / 564
6. [No. 22] Joey Logano / 1 Win / 548
7. [No. 18] Kyle Busch / 1 Win / 520
8. [No. 12] Ryan Blaney / 1 Win / 509
9. [No. 2] Brad Keselowski / 1 Win / 473
10. [No. 20] Christopher Bell / 1 Win / 364
11. [No. 34] Michael McDowell / 1 Win / 355
12. [No. 11] Denny Hamlin / 664 [Points Leader]
13. [No. 4] Kevin Harvick / 483
14. [No. 3] Austin Dillon / 436
15. [No. 8] Tyler Reddick / 398
16. [No. 17] Chris Buescher / 391